Ponds and Pucks

Time for my weekly look and the wonderful and wacky world of NHL standings.

Standings fun:

• Ottawa continues to own the east with nine wins. Detroit has the same in the west.
• At the other end of the spectrum, Atlanta has surged to win three games, tying them with follow bottom feeder Phoenix. And it only took Atlanta 11 games to do it!
• Every team in the Northeast Division is .500 or better, with only the Sabres sitting right on the .500 mark.
• Islanders, Lightning, Coyotes and Blues have all played only 9 games, while Anaheim leads the league at 13 games played.
• Washington and Florida are ahead of New Jersey and the NY Rangers. Who says parity is dead? There’s no such phenomenon in the west… everyone is well ahead of Phoenix and Nashville, surprising no one.

Elsewhere in the NHL:

• To most it’s just a Sunday night matchup between two struggling teams, but to the Ducks and the Oilers it’s another chapter in the feud between their respective GMs. Give this round to the Oilers. Of course, the focus was on Dustin Penner. His comments and attitude in the story are actually pretty classy. The bonus was that GM Brian Burke presented Penner with his Stanley Cup ring in the GM’s office after the game. Wouldn’t you love to be a fly on the wall for that little scene?



• Bruins fans are a hardy folk, how else could they get through so many seasons of misery with barely a whimper? The latest in their string of misfortunes, the injury of Patrice Bergeron — one of the few bright lights in the Bruins organization — might be less serious than previously thought as Bergeron was released from the hospital Sunday. Tests showed no injury to Bergeron’s head and neck.

Plus a big congrats to the Boston Red Sox on their World Series win!

Dustin Penner, Brian Burke, Patrice Bergeron

Ottawa Senators

Notable moves and changes: Fired GM John Muckler, replaced with head coach Brian Murray. Announced promotion of John Paddock to head coach.
Starting goalie: Ray Emery
Summary of last year: While they didn’t compare to other seasons in terms of standings, Ottawa focused on what they needed to do, made the playoffs and cruised to the Stanley Cup Final where they fell to the Ducks.
Prediction for this year: Getting to the Finals is no easy task, and Ottawa, while disappointed in the outcome, is smartly sticking with the same core team: Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson, and so on. As they should. The front office shuffle was enough summer activity for any team to endure. With all the politics out of the way, the path is clear for another run for the Cup.

Ottawa Senators, John Muckler, Brian Murray, John Paddock, Ray Emery, Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson

Tonight’s Game 5 could be the end of the NHL season, the last hockey game for the season. All of us who want a longer season need to root quite hard for the Senators. But I don’t think they’ll be able to pull it off. They have been outplayed at every level by the Ducks.

If they want to win, then Ottawa needs to execute on defense and maintain some level of consistency on offense. They’ve yet to do either. ESPN2 has a stat on their bottom line about how outscored the Senators are in the 3rd period. They need to win every period. It needs to be a blowout. Otherwise it’s just a delay of the inevitable — a loss in the final frame of what will be the last game of the season.

NHL, hockey, Senators, Ducks, Ottawa, Stanley Cup, Anaheim

So there it is. The Senators had a chance to win, but let this one go. Part of the blame has to go to Ray Emery, whom I love, and who got caught off-guard leaving the net wide open for the game-winner. Ray, I love you, but you need to not let that happen.

The Ducks played well, of course. They were crisp and they seemed to be putting the puck where it needed to be, where the defense wasn’t. Contrast that with Ottawa who played better last night but still not good enough. They seemed more chaotic, less structured. They put the puck on the net but didn’t seem to know what to do after that. They were not in any way as efficient as they should have been.

The Senators need to spend their offseason fixing their major weakness. They are too reliant on a few players and not set up to capitalize. They need to work on some set plays. Right now they look like a midget team just running down the ice as quickly as possible without looking.

Senators, Ducks, Ottawa, Anaheim, NHL, hockey, Stanley Cup

If the Senators had lost on Saturday night, I would be writing now about how the Ducks were going to sweep. If the Senators had lost on Saturday night, I would be writing right now about what went wrong and how can they fix everything. I would be writing right now about what they need to do in the off-season to correct a total meltdown.

But they won on Saturday night.

Don’t get me wrong. Ottawa is going to be in for a really tough time and if they think that they are going to make a comeback. Down 2-1, they still need to win 3 out of the next 4 games. And they only have 2 more at home. They need to protect their barn and win one at the pond. Is it doable? Yes. Is it likely? No.

The main criticism from the first game was that Ray Emery looked nervous. He shook off some of those nerves for game two and again on Saturday. But on Saturday, he gave up 3 goals. That’s 7 goals for the series. It’s a dangerous thing to be that loose. His team needs to have his back and Emery needs to calm down.

And he will. Watch him at the next game and he’ll be back to Game 2 form. Emery will be the star of the series. But it won’t be enough. Ottawa made its move too late and is just not good enough. Anaheim has figured out how to shut them down.

Senators, Ducks, Ottawa, Anaheim, NHL, hockey, Stanley Cup

Watching last night’s hockey game, we can only come to one conclusion.  Ray Emery is grossly underpaid.  For 60 minutes, he kept his team in a game that they seemed to have no interest in playing.  The much vaunted Heatley/Spezza/Alfreddson line has produced bupkis.  That may be a function of the Anaheim defense, or it could be indicative that Ottawa has problems.  You be the judge.  The stat of the game though, speaks volumes.  JS Giguerre saw 16 shots.  Emery saw 31.  In the final minutes of play, the Senators couldn’t maintain the pressure in the offensive zone to let Emery get back to the bench.  Emery should have won this game, the offense in front of him lost it.

I was supposed to pick the series and I never did.  For the record, I thought Ottawa would handle business in 6.  I suspect that I will be wrong.

hockey, Anaheim, Ottawa, Senators, Ducks, NHL, Stanley Cup

My bad, I didn’t break down the cup finals yet and give my prediction.  So even though it’s probably cheating a bit, I will do that tomorrow.  Today, let’s look at one aspect of the game that was played last night.

This was a good game, with very few mistakes.  But the stars of the game need to be Ray Emery and J.S. Guiguerre.  What you got if you watched the game was a highlight reel of amazing saves.  Don’t be fooled by the goals that they let up, look at the overall body of work.  For both goalies this was a star performance.  And this is what they will need to continue if they want to drink from Lord Stanley’s Cup.

Both Ottawa and Anaheim have some major offensive forces.  But if the goaltenders can keep the pucks in front of them — by any means necessary — they’ll remain the story.

Ottawa, Anaheim, Senators, Ducks, NHL, Hockey

The Sabres really looked like they were the team to beat.  They had won the President’s Trophy, they had waltzed through the first two rounds of the playoffs, and Ryan Miller looked like he could stop a Mack Truck just by shooting it a dirty look.  So why aren’t they playing for the Stanley Cup?

I could cheat and say that the Senators are just better.  That’s true (the season series demonstrated that as well), but it doesn’t paint the whole picture.  Buffalo could have beat Ottawa if they had made a few corrections.

• The Power Play — At no point did the Sabres fix their ailing power play.  To say that they had trouble converting is to suggest that a 500 degree oven is a little warm.  They were dreadful, absolutely dreadful.  There are no other words to really describe it
• Defense — The Sabres were slower and less prepared on defense.  They were unable to stop the top scoring line of Heatley/Spezza/Alfreddson and more often than not, they had Ottawa rushing on them.
• Intel — The never adjusted their play to incorporate combating Ottawa’s strengths.  Never.  It is what prevented Buffalo from moving on.  They couldn’t adjust.  End of story.

What do you think?

[tags]NHL, hockey[/tag]

Sabres, playoffs, Stanley Cup, Senators, Buffalo, Ottawa

I don’t think I saw the hockey game last night.  My TV must have been broken, and I must have been watching Invasion of the Body Snatchers.  Who were these Buffalo Sabres who took the ice last night because they didn’t look like anything that we had seen thus far this series.

What did they do right?  They kept Alfreddson off of the scoreboard.  In fact, they kept the entire line out of the boxscore.  That’s important.  Spezza, Alfreddson and Heatley are the scorers for the Senators and by preventing them from putting the puck in the net, Buffalo guaranteed that they would win the game.  Finally scoring a power play goal is also critical.

Of course, when Ottawa scored 2 quick goals, that was when my TV was fixed.  That was when Buffalo tried to give back the win.  Tried but did not succeed.  They got lucky.  You cannot allow a team like Ottawa to score like that, and Buffalo knows it.  I am glad to see that they corrected themselves in the 3rd period.  Since I picked the Senators in 6, I am rooting for Buffalo to win a couple of games.

Here’s something to consider though: as good as the Senators have been, in their 15 year history, they have never made the Cup finals.  Can they break through this time or will they choke again as has been their milieu since 1992?

hockey, Buffalo Sabres, Senators, Ottawa, NHL, playoffs, Stanley Cup

After watching last night’s Sabres debacle against the Senators, you can only ask what has caused the total collapse of Buffalo?  The top team in the NHL and (as I have been reminded) winners of the President’s Trophy look like a Class A team from Podunk against Ottawa.

Is it their special teams?
Last night, the Sabres gave up an almost-goal (luck was their goaltender) when the Senators had a 2 on 0 fast break.  That’s all well and good except Buffalo was on the power play at the time.  And if you look at the tape, you don’t see any Sabres getting back fast enough to even help Miller out with a quick rebound.  The Sabres have not yet scored a single PPG and have given up 1 short-handed goal.  If you don’t think that’s significant, then consider this: in game 1, the Sabres had 5 power plays and got exactly 1 shot on goal.

Is it their offense?
In three games, Buffalo has had the following shot counts: 20, 37 and 15.  That’s right, last night they had 15 shots on goal.  Ottawa more than doubled their number.  Point blank — if you don’t shoot the puck at the net, the puck won’t go in.  Ottawa has been stifling Buffalo and preventing them from putting the puck on net.

Is it their defense?
In the first two games, Ottawa ran up the score (5 goals in game 1 and 3 in regulation in game 2).  Buffalo can’t seem to stop them.  See above with regards to their 2 on 0 fast break; Ottawa is faster than Buffalo and makes the turnarounds quicker.

Is it their goalie?
No.  Next question.

Is it the men behind the bench?
Coaches in the NHL have a certain shelf life — moreso really than any other sport.  You reach a point after a few years where you’re selling something but nobody’s buying.  One has to wonder if Lindey Ruff’s magic has expired.  He won’t be out of a job involuntarily this offseason, but maybe he needs to look at whether he’s the cause of the problems.
Or maybe it’s the scouts.
Daniel Alfreddson has scored in his last 5 games (including all 3 against the Sabres).  So maybe someone should pay attention to him.  Now he’s not the only goal scorer on the team, but if it were me, I would make a point out of shutting him down and moving on.

—

I’m staying with my parents for a couple of days and here are the two things that I missed about home:

1. Hi-Def: My parents have a great TV with HDMI and all sorts of bells and whistles.  But their cable package doesn’t have Versus in HD.
2. The ability to rewind: I watch most hockey games on a TV with a DVR … but the big tv doesn’t have one here so no ability to go back and rewatch the last play unless the kind people on Versus decide to show it to me again.

Sabres, Senators, Buffalo, NHL, Ottawa, hockey, Stanley Cup

Sabres vs Senators

Season Series: Senators win 5-3 (Buffalo won 1 game in a shootout)
I’ve struggled with this one for a little while.  Both teams have played great hockey thus far in the playoffs and both of them were great in the regular season.  So who has what it takes to go to the Cup finals?  The reality is that both of them do.

The history here is intense.  Both teams play in the Northeast division, so they played 8 games against each other this year.  They also met in the Conference Semis in last year’s playoff, a matchup which was won by the underdog Sabres in 5 games.

Ryan Miller will be facing one of his toughest challenges thus far against the Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson line.  They had 23 points total against the Devils (out of 35 racked up by the entire Ottawa offense).  As a team, Ottawa scored 288 goals in the regular season, which is second only to Buffalo’s 308 in the NHL.  So Miller’s 2.07 GAA will be tested by this potent offense.  And here’s something else to consider.  Miller, this season against the Senators, is only 1-4.  Buffalo has given up a lot of goals (total in the series is 33 for Ottawa and 24 for Buffalo according to my rough math) and will have a hard time putting out the fire that is the Senator’s top line offense.

On the flip-side, however, Buffalo has a few big game stars as well.  Chris Drury has a total of 14 game winning goals in his career and 7 goals thus far in 11 playoff games.  Ray Emery, the Ottawa goalie, has 2 shutouts thus far in the playoffs and is having a hell of a season.  He was 7th among all goalies in Save %, which might be the key to everything (Miller was 16th, by way of comparison).  Can he put a stop to a red-hot Buffalo team?

Yes.

My pick: Senators in 6

Trophies:
Lady Bing
Finalists

1. Pavel Datsyuk (Det)
2. Joe Sakic (Col)
3. Martin St. Louis (Tby)

The good conduct trophy, as it’s called, is a toss-up.  Paul Kariya is usually in the running so I’m not sure who to pick.  I think St. Louis got shafted by not getting any other nominations so I’ll pick him here.
Who should win: Martin St. Louis
Who will win: Joe Sakic

Sabres, Senators, the Devils, Ottawa, Buffalo, NHL, hockey, stanley cup, playoffs

Wow.
I am not sure that there is a whole lot more to say besides wow.
It’s just wow.
The Buffalo Sabres proved that they are a better hockey team, hands down.  They out-played the Rangers and won the series 4-2, winning both game 5 and game 6 to take the series 4-2.  But there is no question that the Rangers played as best they could and made sure that Buffalo had to work hard to get the win.
For those who missed Game 5, the Rangers had a 1-0 lead until the last 7 seconds of the game.  The Rangers iced the puck and had to take the faceoff in their own zone.  The Sabres scored to tie the game and then won it in OT.  Game 6 had a much different feel.  The Rangers took an early lead into the locker room after the first intermission but then came out for a disastrous middle frame.  After 2, Buffalo led 4-2.  They would eventually win 5-4.
(more…)

Buffalo Sabres, Rangers

The Senators beat the Devils last night, by 1 goal yet again.  This series has been pretty much decided by one goal over each game thus far.  But the Devils have not been able to get past the Senators at all.  New Jersey just cannot put together a game that will get past Ottawa because they are too weak a team.  Brodeur puts them in the driver’s seat but when he is up against the same quality day after day he starts to get into trouble.  Ottawa is stacked with goal scorers and they will put the puck in the net.  The Devils really cannot counter that.

Detroit insists on making things interesting.  Now, I will admit that I didn’t see all of this game because it started too late and I have to be up too early but I’m wishing that I had.  The Red Wings scored a goal with 5 seconds left in the second and then with 33 seconds left in the third to tie the game at 2.  They finally put the game away with 4 minutes left in the first OT period, beating the San Jose Sharks to tie the series at 2 games each.  Nabokov stopped 46 shots and that’s the main problem that he’s facing — his defense needs to keep Detroit from pounding the net.  If they can’t do that, then Detroit will eventually just overpower the Sharks and take the series.

Breaking down the Trophies
I will take these 1 per day, instead of as originally planned.  So today we look at the Calder Trophy for Rookie of the Year.
Finalists:

• Evgeni Malkin (Pit)
• Jordan Staal (Pit)
• Paul Stastny (Col)

Jordan Staal led the Penguins with a +16, and also led the three finalists.  However, he is also 3rd in points (under 50, for a center is troubling).  His teammate Evgeni Malkin leads the three, and all rookies with 85 points.  Stastny is safe as the middle for most categories.  He also has the advantage to not being on the same team as Sidney Crosby, who causes everyone to be overshadowed.
Who should win: Malkin
Who will Win: Stastny

Senators, Devils, New Jersey, Ottawa, Detroit, Red Wings, San Jose Sharks

On Sunday, NBC had some interesting coverage in between periods and the OT of the Rangers-Sabres game.  They talked about what food was brought in for the teams.  So all of you who want to be catering director for a hockey team, you got a bit of information on what to bring in when a hockey game goes into extra periods (bananas and sandwhiches in case you missed it).

New Jersey lost to the Senators last night with Brodeur playing well in goal.  Only him though; as the Devils played a sloppy and uncoordinated game.  If not for the amazing play of their goalie, they’d have been taken out of the game much earlier and would have lost by a lot more than 2 goals given up in the third.  The Devils cannot play another game like that if they want to survive.

One of the big questions that has been floating around since the series was announced was: how would Detroit perform in the Shark Tank?  Last night we got the answer.  They didn’t do too poorly.  Even though the Red Wings lost, they held a lead for almost 20 minutes.  They survived as they needed to do.  San Jose will make this a series and this may be an instant classic, but home ice will not be as potent here as some people thought.  However, as an aside, what is going on with the glass at the Tank?  It needed to be replaced all too often (more than 1x per game is too often).  That situation needs to be looked at.  It would also be nice if the games were a little earlier — not too much but maybe a half hour.  As it is, it’s hard for us on the east coast make it all the way through.

Rangers-Sabres & Anaheim-Vancouver tonight.  Enjoy.

Rangers, Sabres, New Jersey, Senators, Devils, Detroit, Red Wings, San Jose, hockey, NHL, Stanley Cup, playoffs

Good Morning.

It was a great weekend for hockey, and there were some outstanding games on this weekend.  Friday night started off with a second Buffalo win, and a Vancouver win in the second OT period (there was 1 final OT period in the first round that I never added, so let’s add 3 right now…but there were more this weekend).  New Jersey won on Saturday in 2 OT periods (total 5), and Detroit overtook San Jose.  Anaheim beat the Canucks on Sunday and the Rangers/tag] took out the [tag]Sabres in 2 OT (total 7).  So that’s the overall picture.]

Now here’s what you need to know:
Ryan Miller was amazing on Sunday.  Don’t let the loss fool you, he played amazingly.  He kept the Sabres in the game and was pushed beyond anything that you can imagine.  The Rangers had 46 shots on goal and with the exception of the second period, was at least even with or outshot the Sabres in EVERY period.  Buffalo was not on their game — they did not play as well as they had in the first two.  Now they can give up all 3 games at Madison Square Garden and still win the series if they want.  But if they do that, if they can’t win one game on the road in this series, then they will be facing serious problems in the next round.

Detroit is in trouble.  The series is tied 1-1 and game three is tonight at the Shark Pond.  But when you watch them play, it is clear that the dominance from the first series is somewhat lost.  I might have to rethink my pick for this round.  If the Red Wings want to get past the Sharks, they will need to perform much better than they have thus far.

Ottawa is one of the best teams in the league and they may have figured Martin Brodeur out.  If this is true, this series will be done soon.  If not, then I suspect that it’s only a matter of time.

The Anaheim/Vancouver series looks like it will be the best series of this round.

hockey, Buffalo, Vancouver, New Jersey, Detroit, San Jose, Anaheim, Canucks, Rangers/tag] took out the [tag]Sabres, Red Wings, Ottawa, NHL, Stanley Cup